27 Oct

What’s in store for aviation in the nearest future?

A whole new perspective of things, being a pilot in command, a lifelong adventure – these are only a few reasons why people decide to become pilots. But this time let‘s talk numbers. A first pilot’s salary in Europe varies from 20,000 to 100,000 euros. In UK a government study* has found that aircraft pilots and flight engineers are the highest paid group of workers with an average annual salary of £90,420 in 2014.

Yes, there are airlines which pay cheap. Yes, the education is expensive. But the truth is that there is a growing need for pilots all around the world and by the looks of it, if an airline will want their aircraft to leave the ground, the salaries will grow.

We have done a market analysis and found out that due to fallen oil prices and the world’s improving economy, many international carriers have grown really big and have even more ambitions for the future.

What’s up in America?

Boeing forecasts that over the next 20 years a need of 7,890 new airplanes will arise in North America. 66 percent of all new aircraft will be for replacement needs. That leaves us with 34 percent which is about 2690 airplanes. Airplanes need pilots, right? These new planes will need about 15 000 new pilots.

Another thing, in 2007 the U.S. government changed the mandatory retirement rate for airline pilots from 60 to 65 years old. It is expected that by 2018 the retirement rate will reach 25 pilots a month, and in the early part of the next decade these numbers will rise to 60 – 70. The five extra years that delayed the inevitable wave of retirements have now ended and airlines will have to search for solutions.

What about airlines?

Virgin America is expecting five new A320 aircraft in 2016 and they have no plans of retiring any fleet.

Delta Air Lines are discussing a non – stop flight to Asia in the next 3 – 5 years. No final destination has yet been specified.

Frontier Airlines have made an order for ten Airbus A321 and two A320 aircraft and are planning to hire 200 flight attendants.

What’s up in Europe?

The association of European Airlines estimated that member airlines carried 4.1 percent more passengers in 2014 than in 2013. In 2014 European airlines purchased more than 180 airplanes. Boeing predicts that in the next 20 years the aviation market of Europe will certainly grow and airlines will buy more than 7,300 airplanes. 57 percent of those aircraft will be for replacement needs.

What about airlines?

Ryanair has ordered 280 new Boeing 737 aircraft. They are planning to increase their passenger traffic from 100m. to 160m. before 2024.

Iberia has announced that in the upcoming two years they will hire 120 pilots. This will allow Iberia to establish new routes and promote 100 co – pilots to captains.

Vueling is planning to hire 200 first officers to meet the market growth. This will happen before the summer of 2016.

Turkish Airlines will hire 500 pilots and 2,000 cabin crew by the end of 2015. Their fleet will increase by 34 planes.

Norwegian Air has in mind one of the biggest expansion plans in Europe. They will start long – haul flights and grow their fleet with 222 mainly re-engined Boeing 737s and Airbus Group NV A320s by 2016. Also, by 2018 Norwegian will have 17 Dreamliners.

What’s up in Asia?

Asia is now grown to become the biggest aviation market in the world. Every year a billion passengers travel to, from or within Asia. It is expected that in the future this number will grow vastly and airlines will also have to grow to meet the rising demand. It is estimated that Asia’s travel market will grow by 6, 1 percent annually in the upcoming 20 years. There will be a need for 14, 330 new airplanes in the region.

What about airlines?

Singapore Airlines (SIA) will hire from 80 to 100 cadet pilots. They have also ordered 63 of the twin aisle A350 planes, which will start to arrive in early 2016.

Cathay Pacific is going through a modernization plan. The airlines will receive 50 Boeing 777 – 300ERs by 2015 and 32 Airbus A350-900s and -1000s by 2019.

Garuda Indonesia plans to double fleet by 2025. The airlines are hoping that by 2025 they will have 350 – 400 airplanes. Now Garuda has placed an order for 90 new aircraft for mid – range and long – haul flights. The new fleet will consist of 30 Boeing 787, 30 Boeing 737, and 30 Airbus A350 XWB aircraft.

Eva Airways is planning to order more 777s, A321s and the new 787 Dreamliner. Not everything is yet decided, but the airline is planning to order about 20 aircraft, which will arrive in the upcoming 5 – 10 years. Also, Eva Airways are now hiring staff – First Officers for the B744, B777, A320, A321, and A330 fleets; 400 flight attendants and at least a 100 ground staff.

Qatar airlines have ordered 80 aircraft – all Airbus A350XWB. Their order should arrive by 2020.

And now a real juicy bit – in the next 20 years Emirates, flydubai, Etihad and Qatar airways will hire about 500,000 pilots. Captain Ed Davidson, GATE Summit Director and former Gulf-based Emirates Airline executive, stated: “We are running out of the capabilities to fix this issue before we are in a dire situation.” He also added: “We need to find 460,000 pilots over the next 20 years, but the biggest number of people ever recruited into the industry annually was just 14,000.”

In the short run, Etihad Airways said that they will hire 40 fully – qualified pilots from Alitalia. This is just a small part of their plans to hire from 500 and 600 captains and first officers in the next three years.

A short look through

So, this ends our short look through on prospects of the aviation industry in America, Europe and Asia. To put it simple aviation will grow. Along with the aviation industry a dire need for pilots will also appear and the pilot job will become one of the most secure and best-paid jobs in the market. BAA Training is encouraging everyone who is still in doubt to follow their dream. Our aviation academy provides Ab Initio training, different type ratings, and many more study programs for those, who would want to fly their dream.


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